M=DDLL=DDYET =DDNTERNET

From: Subject: =?windows-1254?Q?M=DDLL=DDYET_=DDNTERNET_-_YAZARLAR?= Date: Wed, 5 Sep 2001 11:53:38 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0014_01C13601.66AD1190"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4133.2400 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C13601.66AD1190 Content-Type: text/html; charset="windows-1254" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2001/08/27/yazar/gunes.html M=DDLL=DDYET =DDNTERNET - YAZARLAR

27 A=F0ustos = 2001=20 Pazartesi

B=DDZE=20 ULA=DEIN

HA= BER=20 =DDNDEKS=DD

AR=DEiV<= BR>

YARDIM<= BR>

K=DCNYE<= BR>

=20

=B7 SON = DAK=DDKA=20
=B7 ANA = SAYFA=20
=B7 = G=DCNCEL
=B7 = S=DDYASET
=B7 = EKONOM=DD
=B7 = YAZARLAR
=B7 SPOR =
=B7 = D=DCNYA
=B7 = YA=DEAM
=B7 = MAGAZ=DDN
=B7 = SA=D0LIK
=B7 KADIN = & MODA=20
=B7 = ASTROLOJ=DD=20
=B7 = OTOMOB=DDL
=B7 = =C7=DDZERLER
=B7 = B=DDL=DDM &=20 TEKN=DDK
=B7 TV'DE = BUG=DCN=20
=B7 =DD=DE = YA=DEAMI=20
=B7 = OMBUDSMAN=20
=B7 HAVA = DURUMU=20
=B7 = CUMARTES=DD=20
=B7 = PAZAR
=B7 = SER=DD =DDLAN=20

Garih=92in = ard=FDndan
     Garih=92le=20 iki kez beraber oldum. ilki belki on y=FDl =F6nce = Marmara=20 =FCniversitesinin d=FCzenledi=F0i bir panelde. = ikincisi de=20 ge=E7enlerde Milliyet gazetesinin d=FCzenledi=F0i = panelde. Garih bu=20 kez dinleyiciydi. =E7=FDkarken =FClkemiz i=E7in = iyimser oldu=F0unu=20 a=E7=FDklam=FD=FEt=FD. =FCzeyir Garih=92in = =F6ld=FCr=FClmesi, hi=E7 ku=FEku yok ki,=20 =FClkemizde i=FE alemi i=E7in =F6nemli bir kay=FDp = oldu. 1990=92l=FD=20 y=FDllarda T=FCrkiye=92de i=FEadamlar=FD aras=FDnda = ekonomik sorunlara=20 e=F0ilmenin yan=FD s=FDra, sosyal ve siyasal konularla = ilgilenme=20 e=F0ilimi ortaya =E7=FDkt=FD. Kapitalizmin ilkel = geli=FEme s=FCrecindeki=20 benmerkezci (egosantrik) e=F0ilim, geli=FEme = sa=F0land=FDk=E7a yerini=20 "uygarla=FEan i=FEadam=FD"na b=FDrak=FDr. Kapitalistin = e=F0ilim ve ilgisi=20 toplumsalla=FE=FDr. i=FEte son y=FDllardaki = =FClkemizde de g=F6zlenen bu=20 geli=FEme son derece umut verici. Garih de bu = uygarla=FEma=20 s=FCrecini g=F6steren =F6nc=FC i=FEadamlar=FDndan=20 biriydi.
     Bu = geli=FEimi asl=FDnda=20 son y=FDllarda T=FCSiAD bir =F6rg=FCt olarak = yans=FDtmaya =E7al=FD=FE=FDyor.=20 Elbette bu yakla=FE=FDm k=FCreselle=FEme = kar=FE=FDs=FDnda eme=F0in haklar=FDn=FD=20 arama =E7abas=FDnda de=F0il. Olmas=FD da gerekmiyor. = (O sosyal=20 demokratlar=FDn siyasal g=F6revi) Ama = k=FCreselle=FEmenin getirmesi=20 gereken siyasal de=F0i=FEimi T=FCSiAD kendi = =E7ap=FDnda zorluyor. Garih,=20 ya=FEam=FDnda siyasetle orta=F0=FD Alaton kadar = ilgilenmedi. Ancak=20 i=FEadam=FDn=FDn ba=FEar=FDl=FD olabilmesi i=E7in = gerekenleri gen=E7lere=20 aktarmaya =E7al=FD=FEt=FD. Nas=FDl yeti=FEmeliler, = nas=FDl davranmal=FDlar?=20 E=F0itime ve kurumsalla=FEmaya =E7ok =F6nem verdi. = Kalk=FDnman=FDn,=20 zenginli=F0in ancak e=F0itimle a=FE=FDlabilece=F0ini = g=F6sterdi.=20 Kurumsalla=FEman=FDn ve profesyonelle=FEmenin = =FEirketlerin=20 kal=FDc=FDl=FD=F0=FDnda =F6nemini anlad=FD, anlatt=FD. = =FClkeye b=FCy=FCk bir servet=20 kazand=FDrd=FD. Hi=E7 ku=FEku yok ki, = kazand=FDrd=FD=F0=FD en b=FCy=FCk servet=20 arkas=FDnda b=FDrakt=FD=F0=FD maddi servet de=F0il, = gen=E7lerin aya=F0=FDna=20 giderek aktard=FD=F0=FD bilgi ve deneyimidir. = Topra=F0=FD bol=20 olsun!

=DDki = d=FC=FE=FCnd=FCr=FCc=FC=20 = geli=FEme     Ekonomide=20 en =F6nemli hedef hi=E7 ku=FEkusuz s=FCrekli = b=FCy=FCmedir. Ekonomisi=20 b=FCy=FCm=FC=FE, =FClkesi kalk=FDnm=FD=FE = toplumlar=FDn payla=FE=FDm sorunu da=20 azal=FDr. =E7=FCnk=FC tatmin artar. Kald=FD ki, = kalk=FDnmam=FD=FE =FClkenin nesi=20 payla=FE=FDlabilir ki?.. Mevcut program, yaz sonunda, = en ge=E7=20 sonbaharda, canlanma =F6ng=F6r=FCyordu. Bu canlanma da = reel=20 faizlerdeki d=FC=FE=FC=FEle sa=F0lanacakt=FD. Malum, = reel faizler iki=20 yolla d=FC=FEebilir; ya nominal faizler d=FC=FEer, ya = da enflasyon=20 y=FCkselir. Programa g=F6re deval=FCasyondan bir = s=FCre sonra=20 enflasyon d=FC=FEme e=F0ilimine girece=F0inden, as=FDl = geli=FEme nominal=20 faizlerde olacakt=FD. Oysa Telekom krizi bu = geli=FEmeyi tersine=20 =E7evirdi. Faizler ve d=F6viz kuru yeniden = y=FCkselmeye ba=FElad=FD.=20 Reel sekt=F6r de haliyle bundan =E7ok olumsuz = etkilendi.=20 =

     =DD= hracatta=20 duraklama=20 = oldu
     Deval=FCasyon bir=20 =FClkenin ihracat=FDnda rekabet=E7i g=FCc=FC = art=FDr=FDr. ihracattaki=20 geli=FEme h=FDzl=FD olur, reel ekonomi =E7abuk = canlan=FDrsa, sorunlar=20 yerini k=F6kten =E7=F6z=FCmlere b=FDrak=FDr. Ancak = deval=FCasyona ra=F0men bu=20 geli=FEme olmazsa i=FEler k=F6t=FC demektir. =FCstelik = =F6zellikle para=20 ikamesinin (dolarizasyonun) artt=FD=F0=FD =FClkelerde, = =E7ok sanc=FD=20 = verebilir.
     Deval=FCasyonun=20 ard=FDndan ihracat=FDn hemen artmas=FD beklenemez. = Yeni sat=FD=FElar=FDn=20 olabilmesi i=E7in pazarlama ve anla=FEmalar gerekir. = Buna ra=F0men=20 =FEubat deval=FCasyonunun hemen ertesinde ihracat = performans=FDm=FDzda=20 =F6nemli art=FD=FElar oldu. Bu da bizi = umutland=FDrd=FD. Ancak son=20 veriler kayg=FD veriyor. Asl=FDnda mart ve nisan = ay=FDndaki ihracat=20 geli=FEmeleri stoklardan kar=FE=FDlan=FDr. Ancak daha = sonra =FCretimi=20 art=FDrmak, hatta ek kapasite ve finansman gerekir. = Baz=FDlar=FD=20 ihracattaki patlaman=FDn ya=FEanmamas=FDna, finansman = sorununun=20 s=FDk=FDnt=FD verdi=F0i=20 = savunuyor.
     Yukar=FDdaki grafi=F0e=20 dikkat edilirse en son haziran ay=FDna kadar olan = ihracat=20 rakamlar=FD var. Ocak ay=FD itibariyle hemen hemen her = ay artan=20 ihracat, birden bire en son haziran ay=FDnda bir = =F6nceki aya g=F6re=20 d=FC=FE=FC=FE g=F6steriyor. Ger=E7i =F6nceki y=FDl=FDn = ayn=FD ay=FDna g=F6re bu bir=20 art=FD=FE anlam=FDna gelse de, a=E7=FDk bir = yava=FElama da g=F6zleniyor.=20 Akademisyen arkada=FElar=FDm=FDz bir ayl=FDk bir = geli=FEmeden olumsuz=20 (veya olumlu) bir sonu=E7 =E7=FDkartmama konusunda = bizi=20 uyarabilirler. Ancak biz bu geli=FEmenin = d=FC=FE=FCnd=FCr=FCc=FC oldu=F0u ve=20 temmuzda da benzer bir geli=FEmenin tekrar etmesi = durumunda=20 ihracata dayal=FD bir b=FCy=FCme = olas=FDl=FD=F0=FDn=FDn 2002 y=FDl=FDna sarkaca=F0=FD=20 kan=FDs=FDn=FD ta=FE=FDyoruz. =
     Bir s=FCre=20 ihracat=FD izlemekte yarar var. Ama kal=FDc=FD = geli=FEme kurlarla=20 de=F0il, serbest kur rejiminde s=FCrekli b=FCy=FCme = sa=F0layarak olur.=20 T=FCrkiye bu rejime girdi=F0inde bir s=FCre = s=FDk=FDnt=FD =E7ekebilir. Ama=20 uzun vadede (e=F0er enflasyonla m=FCcadele de elden = b=FDrak=FDlmazsa)=20 farkl=FD bir ekonomik modele oturmu=FE=20 = olacak.

    &nbs= p;=DCretimde=20 de benzer kayg=FD = var
     Reel=20 faizlerdeki a=FE=FDr=FD y=FCkselme ve deval=FCasyon = nisan ay=FDna dek=20 =FCretimde ciddi d=FC=FE=FC=FElere neden oldu. Ancak = nisan ay=FDnda gerek=20 d=F6viz kurunun d=FC=FEmesi, gerekse nominal = faizlerdeki d=FC=FE=FC=FElerle=20 =FCretimdeki daralmada bir geriye d=F6n=FC=FE = g=F6zlenmi=FEti. Bu geli=FEme=20 sa=F0daki yukar=FD giden okla da g=F6sterildi=F0i gibi = s=FCrece=F0i ve=20 y=FDl=FDn son =E7eyre=F0inde pozitif b=FCy=FCme elde = edilece=F0i=20 planlan=FDyordu. Oysa May=FDs ay=FDndaki Telekom krizi = faiz ve kuru=20 z=FDplat=FD=FD. Ve Haziran ay=FDn=FDn imalat sanayi = =FCretim endeksine bu=20 durum yans=FDd=FD. =FEimdi temmuz ay=FD =E7ok =F6nem = ta=FE=FDyor. E=F0er oku=20 sa=F0lar bir geli=FEme temmuz verilerinde de = g=F6zlenmezse bu y=FDl=FDn=20 k=FC=E7=FClmesi =E7ok ac=FD veren bir d=FCzeye = ula=FEm=FD=FE=20 olacak
     Bununla = beraber temmuz=20 ay=FDndaki geli=FEmeler bir sonuca varmak i=E7in = yeterli=20 olmayabilir. Sa=F0l=FDkl=FD analiz yapabilmek i=E7in = a=F0ustos ay=FDn=FD da=20 g=F6rmekte yarar bulunuyor. Kald=FD ki, son =FC=E7 = ayd=FDr kamu=20 kesiminin =F6nc=FCl=FC=F0=FCn=FC yapt=FD=F0=FD = kapasite kullan=FDm oranlar=FDnda bir=20 k=FDp=FDrdanma g=F6zleniyor. =F6zel kesimde de, = ge=E7en y=FDla g=F6re daha=20 d=FC=FE=FCk kullan=FDmlar ge=E7erli olsa bile, son = =FC=E7 ayd=FDr her ay art=FD=FE=20 g=F6zleniyor.

Reel = faizlerde=20 = durum     Aylard=FDr=20 yurtd=FD=FE=FDnda ve yurti=E7inde i=E7 borcun = d=F6nemeyece=F0i =FCzerine=20 raporlar yaz=FDld=FD, durdu. ilk iddia a=F0ustos = ay=FDn=FDn b=FCy=FCk=20 itfas=FDnda yetersiz taleple = kar=FE=FDla=FE=FDlaca=F0=FD ve i=E7 borcun=20 =E7evrilemeyece=F0iydi. Sonra i=E7 borcun =E7evrilse = bile b=FDrak=FDlan=20 likiditenin d=F6vize gidece=F0i, bor=E7lanman=FDn yine = becerilemeyece=F0i =FCzerineydi. Daha sonra, t=FCm = bunlar=FDn=20 ger=E7ekle=FEme olas=FDl=FD=F0=FDn=FDn bulunmamas=FD = halinde bile, reel=20 faizlerin d=FC=FEmemesi nedeniyle program=FDn, daha = do=F0rusu i=E7=20 borcun, s=FCrd=FCr=FClemeyece=F0i =FCzerine = s=F6ylentiler geli=FEti. IMF de=20 bu geli=FEmeye destek vermedi, de=F0il. Nihayet son = haftalarda bir=20 kas=FDm sendromu i=FEleniyordu. Kas=FDmda itfa = y=FCksek, Hazine=92nin=20 barutu ise malum daha azd=FD.=20
     Cuma ak=FEam=FD kamu = bankalar=FDn=FDn elinde bulunan ve kas=FDm ay=FDnda = faizleri =F6denecek=20 ka=F0=FDtlar=FDn vadeli de=F0i=FEtirilerek faiz = =F6demelerinin=20 ertelenece=F0i ve bunun 900 trilyonluk bir kolayl=FDk = sa=F0layaca=F0=FD=20 a=E7=FDkland=FD. Anla=FE=FDlan sendromun piyasalardaki = olumsuz havas=FDn=FD=20 da=F0=FDtmak i=E7in Hazine bir =F6nlem almak istedi. = Bu kas=FDm=20 sendromunu "k=FDsmen de olsa" ortadan kald=FDr=FDyor. = Ortada =E7=FDkan=20 bu rahatlama =FEimdiye kadar Hazine=92nin i=E7 = borcunun kamuya olan=20 k=FDsm=FDn=FDn s=FDk s=FDk konsolide etmesiyle = kazan=FDld=FD. Ancak=20 beraberinde =FEu da akla geliyor: kamu bankalar=FDna = daha birka=E7=20 ay =F6nce verilen ka=F0=FDtlar=FDn tertiplerinin = de=F0i=FEtirilmesi=20 Hazine=92nin bu y=FDl=FD daha =F6nce daha rahat = ge=E7irece=F0ini=20 planlad=FD=F0=FD, ancak farkl=FD geli=FEmeler = nedeniyle s=FDk s=FDk yeniden=20 yap=FDland=FDrmak zorunda kald=FD=F0=FDn=FD=20 g=F6steriyor.
     Yandaki = grafikte=20 y=FDlba=FE=FDndan bu yana sat=FDlan Hazine = bonolar=FDn=FDn ihalelerinde=20 olu=FEan faizlerin, itfas=FDna kadar (vadesi kadar) = olu=FEan=20 enflasyondan indirgenmi=FE hali, yani reel faizin = y=FDll=FDk=20 bile=FEi=F0i verilmektedir. Biz y=FDl sonuna kadar bir = enflasyon=20 tahmini yapt=FDk ve g=F6rd=FCk ki, olu=FEan bu faizler = ger=E7ekten=20 astronomiktir. =FEubata dek reel olarak negatif faiz = =F6deyen=20 Hazine, deval=FCasyon sonras=FD y=FCzde 40=92lar = d=FCzeyinde faizle=20 ba=FElam=FD=FE, sonra olumlu hava ile may=FDsta = y=FCzde 20=92lere kadar=20 d=FC=FEm=FC=FE, ancak TELEKOM krizi ile yeniden = y=FCzde 40=92lara=20 t=FDrmanm=FD=FEt=FDr. B=F6ylesi bir d=F6nemde, bu = nedenle d=F6vize endeksli,=20 d=F6vizli ve di=F0er daha d=FC=FE=FCk maliyetli = bor=E7lanmalar ger=E7ekten=20 Hazine a=E7=FDs=FDndan yararl=FD=20 = olmu=FEtur.

    = hursit@marun.edu.tr
=
=20

SAYFA=20 BA=DEI

Taha=20 AKYOL

Garih'e sayg=FD =

Fikret=20 B=DDLA

Varyag'=FDn ge=E7i=FEi =

Yasemin = CONGAR

Dostunu, d=FC=FEman=FDn=FD = tan=FDyacaks=FDn!=20

Hur=FEit = G=DCNE=DE

Garih=92in ard=FDndan =

Nail=20 G=DCREL=DD

Dolar ve A=F0r=FD=92da onur=20

Meliha=20 OKUR

=91Bir acemi birli=F0i, bir de = =FCniversite=92=20

Tuncay=20 =D6zkan

Bir cinayetin anatomisi=20

Hasan=20 PULUR

=DCVEY EVLAT OLDUK...=20

Derya=20 SAZAK

Tayyip olmazsa G=FCl=20

Ece = Temelkuran

Size gittik! Sizden geliyoruz!=20

Osman=20 ULAGAY

Ben =E7ok iyiyim, siz = nas=FDls=FDn=FDz?=20

G=FCng=F6r= =20 URAS

Gelirimizden =E7ok de=F0il az = harc=FDyoruz=20 =

=A9 2001=20 Milliyet

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